Happy Tuesday USL fans! Here’s a rundown of the action last week:

• Union Omaha and Greenville Triumph played to a 3-3 draw.
• Charlotte Independence rolled over Chattanooga 3-0.
• Lexington and One Knox rematched to a 1-1 draw.
• Northern Colorado Hailstorm dominated Fuego FC with a 4-1 victory.
• South Georgia Tormenta and Richmond Kickers ended up with a 1-1 draw.
• Forward Madison took a win at Omaha 2-1.

Another week, more chaos. However, the clubs are starting to separate themselves into clumps based on our power rankings formula. Here’s how we stack them up going into week 12:

Top Tier

Our scale of power ranking scores goes from 131 at the high end to 42 at the low end. The top three are only separated by seven points.

1) North Carolina FC

Last week: 1
Record: 6-3-1 (1st)
Matches since last ranking: LOSS at Charlotte, 2-1
Next league match: at One Knox, 6/3

NCFC had the weekend off, and has built up enough of a cushion to where we won’t take away their spot at the top just yet. The two teams below them in the power rankings are virtually tied in our overall formula, but both faced (and easily beat) bottom-of-the-table clubs this weekend. That makes us hesitant to move them up. And while NCFC’s strength of schedule is now 10th in the league, the spread between NCFC’s schedule strength and the next worst (Knoxville) is actually larger than the spread between NCFC and the best ranked strength of schedule (Richmond).

Speaking of One Knox, a well-rested NCFC squad will try to handle the resurgent club on Saturday. If they struggle to do so, we may see a new number one next week.

2) Charlotte Independence

Last ranking: 2
Record: 5-2-4 (2nd)
Matches since last ranking: WIN vs. Red Wolves SC, 3-0
Next league Match: vs. Union Omaha, 6/3

It was pouring rain and barely 100 fans showed up, but Charlotte Independence easily handled an inconsistent Red Wolves SC side. Nine different players have scored for The Jacks, making the squad especially difficult for defenses to cover. Gabriel Obertan missed the match after making a second-half return last weekend, but it seems the club has finally adapted to his inconsistent availability.

Charlotte will host a suddenly struggling Union Omaha side on Saturday. But with the amount of talent there just waiting to break out, The Jacks shouldn’t take the challenge lightly.

3) Hailstorm FC

Last week: 3
Record: 4-1-2 (4th)
Matches since last ranking: WIN vs. Fuego, 4-1
Next league match: at Lexington, 6/3

Despite a hail-related weather delay (no, seriously), the home opener for Hailstorm FC was a resounding success on the strength of four first-half goals. Trevor Amann was responsible for two of them, and now leads the league for the golden boot race. The club ranks high in most categories, but we hesitate to move them up in the rankings due to having an overall worst strength of schedule in the league so far. That being said, they do have 3-4 matches in hand on the two clubs above them.

They’ll head back out on the road this weekend, traveling to Lexington. After that, the schedule difficulty increases a bit with a week 13 double-header, hosting Richmond on Wednesday and traveling to Knoxville on Saturday, June 10th.

Second Tier

The next two clubs are tied with 105 points in our rankings formula. We give Madison the edge based on having a match in hand and having higher points per match. But One Knoxville is not too far behind to round out the playoff bubble.

4) Forward Madison

Last week: 5
Record: 3-1-4 (7th)
Matches since last ranking: WIN at Omaha, 2-1
Next match: vs. Fuego FC, 6/3

The Mingos bounced back with a 2-1 win at rivals Union Omaha. Aiden Mesias had his first, while Christian Chaney got his third of the year. Moving into week 12, they’ve still only allowed 0.63 goals per match, and Bernd Schippman is putting up goalkeeper-of-the-year-type numbers. Offensive numbers are still relatively low, but as long as they can rely on the defense to grind out more one-goal wins, this may be a working formula.

They’ll host Fuego FC on Saturday, and will hopefully keep the momentum going.

5) Richmond Kickers

Last week: 4
Record: 3-2-5 (5th)
Matches since last ranking: DRAW at Tormenta, 1-1
Next match: vs. Chattanooga Red Wolves, 6/3

Richmond’s strength of schedule is best in the league so far, heading into a bit more relaxing June. They had to come from behind to do it, but they managed a draw at Tormenta on a Justin Sukow Olimpico, only the second ever in USL League One. This goal was especially critical after going down a man after a second yellow card was issued to midfielder Zaca Morán.

They’ll be without Morán but will host an inconsistent Chattanooga side on Saturday. While it would be nice to exact revenge for the playoff loss, it’s definitely not the same as Chattanooga from 2022.

6) One Knoxville SC

Last week: 6
Record: 4-3-3 (3rd)
Matches since last ranking: DRAW at Lexington, 1-1
Next match: vs. NCFC, 6/3

While it would have been nice to pick up a third win in a row, One Knox settled for an honorable 7th point in the span of eight days after drawing Lexington. Jake Keegan continued his late-career renaissance with his fifth goal of the season in the comeback draw.

The squad will host an always-dangerous NCFC side on Saturday. The defense better be ready. Knoxville has yet to beat any club higher than 7th in the table and has only faced two fellow clubs in the current top six, a 2-0 loss to Tormenta and a 2-1 loss to Hailstorm FC.

Third Tier: Just Outside the Bubble

These clubs are down but certainly not out, with 22 or 23 matches remaining. They have their early-season struggles, but there’s plenty of time and potential for turning things around.

7) Tormenta FC

Last week: 5
Record: 4-5-1 (6th)
Matches since last ranking: DRAW vs. Richmond, 1-1
Next match: at Greenville, 6/3

Tormenta’s W-L-W-L-W-L pattern came to an end with its first draw while hosting Richmond. Kazaiah Sterling returned to the starting 11, but it was Nick Akoto who scored. Both defenses and goalkeepers made solid efforts, and Tormenta was unable to capitalize on over 20 minutes with a man advantage.

They’ll have a week to practice better integration of the dangerous combination of Sterling and Arthur Bousa into the lineup before traveling to Greenville on Saturday. There they’ll face one of the best offensive squads, but also a low-ranked defense. We may be seeing a lot of goals.

8) Union Omaha

Last ranking: 6
Record: 2-1-5 (9th)
Matches since last ranking: DRAW vs. Greenville, 3-3; LOSS vs. Forward Madison, 2-1
Next Match: at Charlotte, 6/3

It was a week in which the Owls could have vaulted into third place in the table, but they ended up leaving five of six possible points on the table with a 3-3 draw against Greenville and a disappointing loss to rivals Forward Madison. While goals are being scored (4th best in the league), the defense is struggling to maintain its solid form from 2022. This places the club back where it started, with only a +1 goal differential and in and out of the playoff bubble.

Things won’t get any easier, as they travel to Charlotte on Saturday to face another one of the best defensive squads in the league. The talent is there, so we won’t give up on this club just yet. But it’s starting to frustrate the fans in Omaha.

9) Greenville Triumph

Last week: 8
Record (3-5-2, 8th)
Matches since last ranking: DRAW at Union Omaha, 3-3
Next match: vs. Tormenta, 6/3

It was a wild mid-week match in Omaha, as Triumph SC battled to an entertaining 3-3 draw. But while the entertainment is good for the fans, the fact that Greenville has given up a league-high 17 goals in 10 matches is not a sustainable path. Thanks to Chattanooga and Fuego putting on even worse performances this week, they no longer rank last in goals allowed per match, but this is not a category in which clubs should be competing.

They’ll host Tormenta on Saturday, another club with a sometimes leaky defense, and a potentially explosive offense. If anything, it should be entertaining for the neutrals.

Bottom Tier

10) Lexington SC

Last week: 11
Record: 2-5-2 (10th)
Matches since last ranking: DRAW vs. One Knox SC, 1-1
Next match: vs. Hailstorm FC, 6/3

There’s not much separating the bottom three clubs in the rankings and the table, but Lexington has managed to separate itself just a little with a win and a draw in its last three matches. Statistically overall, the club has a ways to go to catch Greenville, but table points-wise, they’re within reach. The biggest thing separating Lexington from its peers at the bottom is defense. While only tied for 7th best in goals allowed per match, this does place them well above Chattanooga and Fuego, and even significantly above Greenville and slightly above Tormenta.

Goal scoring on the other hand has been relatively scarce, and the club ranks tied for second to last and is one of three clubs with a goals-per-match rate of less than one.

The defense will be put to the test when Hailstorm FC’s now top-ranked offense comes to town. And an offense that can’t crack a goal per match in this league may not stand a chance against NOCO’s defense, which has only allowed 0.71 goals per match.

11) Red Wolves SC

Last week: 10
Record: 2-5-2 (11th)
Matches since last ranking: LOSS at Charlotte, 3-0
Next match: at Richmond, 6/3

On one hand, this has been a tough stretch for Chattanooga, having faced three clubs in the top half of the table in the last four matches. Charlotte showed no mercy to their visitors, making quick work of the Red Wolves en route to a 3-0 victory. This made all three of those matches into losses, and the fourth was a draw against Union Omaha. But Chattanooga is not only losing these matches, they’re losing them bad. Subsequently, the goal differential is now second to last in the league at -8, goals scored per match is tied for second last, and the goals allowed per match is tied for last.

Things aren’t getting easier in June, as they’ll travel to Richmond on Saturday before a midweek matchup against Forward Madison.

12) Fuego FC

Last week: 12
Record: 2-6-1 (12th)
Matches since last ranking: LOSS at Hailstorm FC, 4-1
Next match: at Forward Madison, 6/3

To be fair, Hailstorm FC is a really good team. And Fuego ranks dead last in nearly everything: points per match, goal differential, goals scored per match, and tied for worst in goals allowed per match. So it came as little surprise when Hailstorm handed Fuego FC a lopsided defeat. It pains us to say this after the squad showed promise last week, but Fuego has not yet turned a corner.

They’ll travel to Forward Madison on Saturday, where they’ll face a tough defense and a possibly awakened offense. With Richmond looming on the horizon, it may be a brutal start to the month of June.