Richmond takes the quick trip down I-85 to face off with league leaders NCFC.

North Carolina FC

NCFC comes off its first loss in seven matches after falling 2-0 to Forward Madison.

The club remains top of the table and leads the league in multiple categories including points per match, goal differential (tied with Madison), goals, and scored per match (both tied with Greenville).

Rafa Mentzingen leads the club and the league with six goals. Rounding out the remaining goals include Louis Pérez with three and Oalex Anderson with two.

While the defense is steady in the middle of the pack compared to the rest of the league, NCFC’s formula relies on a constant attack from a trio of talented players in Mentzingen, Anderson, and Pérez who have taken 55 of the club’s league second-best 114 shots.

Forward Madison’s stingy defense was able to effectively shut down the trio last match, exploiting the squad’s reliance on their abilities. NCFC faces an almost equally stingy Richmond defense in this match.

Mentzingen also leads the squad in duels won, showcasing his dynamic play in the midfield as well as at forward. Mikey Maldonado and Jaden Servania come in the top two in tackles and tackles won. Maldonado has also assisted on two goals.

How NCFC wins this match: Richmond’s defense may target and shut down Anderson, Mentzingen, and Pérez in the same manner that Madison did over the weekend. Unless the trio can figure out a way to break through and exploit the possible absence of Dakota Barnathan, NCFC will need production from secondary players and the midfield, such as Luis Arriaga, Jaden Servania, and Mikey Maldonado.

NCFC Absent / Questionable: Luke Croll, Max Flick

Richmond Kickers

Richmond is fresh off of a come-from-behind draw at Greenville in which second-half goals came from a defender (Nathan Aune) and a bench forward (Luke Pavone) scoring his first in five seasons with Richmond.

The story of Richmond’s 2023 season so far is its defense, second best in the league on goals allowed per match. Center back Nathan Aune also leads the squad in goals with two, while expected goal scorers Kharlton Belmar, Owayne Gordon and reigning Golden Boot winner Emiliano Terzaghi each have one. Bench forward Luke Pavone and midfielder Justin Sukow also have one apiece.

Richmond’s goals per match rank just below the league average, somewhat of a disappointment after having such a wide lead in the statistic to finish out the 2022 season. The squad also ranks 11th in the league in shots, although with a conversion rate of 16% (3rd in the league). They tend to be efficient when they do shoot.

The club will likely be without center-back Dakota Barnathan, who was injured in the match against Greenville. This will require some adjustment on a back line that has been so good for the club up to this point.

Left back Michael Hornsby leads the Kickers in tackles, tackles won, duels, and duels won, while also providing an assist, a shot on target, and six chances created. On top of this, Hornsby missed one match with an injury.

Richmond is backstopped by Akira Fitzgerald, with two clean sheets in four matches.

How Richmond can win this match: NCFC’s defense is slightly weaker than three of the clubs Richmond has faced this season. However, Richmond only had one goal in four matches against those three (Charlotte 2x, Hailstorm FC, Omaha), while scoring six against clubs with much weaker defenses (Tormenta, Greenville x2). Much like the Tormenta match, Richmond likely needs to score early and hold on if they want to take down the table leader.

Richmond Kickers Absent / Questionable: Dakota Barnathan (injury), Ethan Vanacore-Decker (long-term injury), Nil Vinyals (probable)

Head to Head

This is the first match between NCFC and Richmond in 2023.

NCFC is the clear leader in offensive categories. However, Richmond’s defense and strength of schedule to this point in the season are both stronger.