Happy Monday USL fans! Here’s a rundown of the action this weekend:

• Forward Madison made a statement by handing NCFC its first loss since week one to remain unbeaten in league play.
• 11th place Lexington SC upset second place Charlotte Independence.
• Hailstorm FC took care of business at Knoxville.
• Greenville blew a 2-0 first-half lead and settled for a 2-2 draw with Richmond.

Now that we have a good baseline with all clubs playing at least five matches, we added a little science into the mix. This week’s rankings include factors such as table ranking, points per match played, expected points, goal differential, goals per match, goals allowed per match, and strength of schedule.

The clubs are broken out into tiers based on the formula: the king, the nearest challenger, the middle of the pack, the hopefuls, and the basement dweller.

The King Stands Alone

1) North Carolina FC

Last week: 1
Record: 5-2-1 (1st)
Matches since last ranking: LOSS vs. Forward Madison, 2-0
Next league match: vs. Richmond Kickers, 5/17

NCFC took its first loss since week one when Forward Madison came into town desperate for a win of its own. The squad couldn’t break Madison’s solid defenses and were limited to one shot on target. Perhaps other clubs can take notes on what it takes to shut down this juggernaut and try for themselves. Still, we’re not too worried, because, in a long season, even the best sometimes take a loss and move on. Even with the rare shutout, first place NCFC is still top of the league in points earned per match, goals scored, goals scored per match and goal differential.

NCFC will host Richmond, another defensive powerhouse, on Wednesday. We will see if there is time to adjust the tactics accordingly or if Richmond took some notes from Madison’s play.

Challenging for the Crown

2) Forward Madison

Last week: 7
Record: 2-0-4 (5th)
Matches since last ranking: WIN at NCFC, 2-0
Next match: vs. Hailstorm FC, 5/18

After another solid defensive performance, but also another disappointing draw in week 8, the Mingos needed a win. And when better to make a statement than against the club at the top of the table? Not only did the defense effectively shut down the top-ranked NCFC offense, but the offense finally clicked again and scored some goals. The squad dominated on duels and interceptions and held NCFC to one shot on target. And the man of the match and early season team MVP Isidro Martinez scored a highlight reel goal from well outside the box, then assisted from the corner kick on the second, a Mitch Osmond header.

If the offense really has clicked, this is going to be one dangerous team moving into the midpoint of the season, especially considering defensively, they are top of the league with the fewest goals allowed per match. Next up they’ll host Northern Colorado Hailstorm FC on Thursday, another squad that, like NCFC, ranks high in goals scored per match.

Middle of the Pack

3) Charlotte Independence

Last ranking: 2
Record: 3-2-4 (2nd)
Matches since last ranking: LOSS at Lexington, 1-0
Next league Match: vs. NCFC, 5/21

While the list of injuries ended up being overblown, Charlotte continues to struggle to score without Gabriel Obertan, who missed his third match in a row. And while Lexington goalkeeper Amahl Knight was a big part of this loss with his six saves, Charlotte is now winless since a dialed-in effort against lowly Fuego FC on April 22. It doesn’t get easy next weekend, as The Jacks host top-of-the-table NCFC on Sunday, adding to their already top-ranked strength of schedule to start the season.

4) Hailstorm FC

Last week: 8
Record: 2-1-2 (8th)
Matches since last ranking: WIN at One Knox, 2-1
Next league match: at Forward Madison, 5/18

Hailstorm FC did the expected thing and took care of a struggling One Knox SC side on the strength of back-to-back goals early in the second half from Trevor Amann and Billy King. The club will finish its extended road streak on Thursday at Madison where it hopes to finish strong before returning home. The clubs are top two in defense, so a win won’t come easy for either side. Hailstorm is third best in the league in points earned per match, goal differential and goals scored per match, but has the lowest strength of schedule thus far. Facing Madison boosts the strength of schedule, and a win there would reinforce that this club is for real.

5) Tormenta FC

Last week: 5
Record: 4-4-0 (3rd)
Matches since last ranking: WIN at Chattanooga, 2-0
Next match: at Fuego FC, 5/20

Tormenta had the week off to prepare for a visit to Fuego FC this coming weekend. A win there would break the inconsistent loss-win-loss-win-loss-win streak, on a week they’d be due for a loss. We’re still on Kazaiah Sterling watch, as the striker is due to return soon. His insertion into the starting 11 with an extra week of practice to adjust would certainly give them the upper hand. However, they’ll be facing a Fuego side which has also had an extra week to prepare around its returned star, José Carrera-García. Given the uncertainties here, we’re leaning towards this match being a toss-up.

6) Union Omaha

Last ranking: 3
Record: 2-1-3 (7th)
Matches since last ranking: DRAW at Richmond, 0-0
Next Match: at Red Wolves SC, 5/20

The Owls were off this weekend and will travel to Chattanooga on Saturday. They’ll be more rested than their hosts, who will be coming off a mid-week matchup with One Knox. A win would send the club back into the top six, with a match in hand over most of the rest within the playoff bubble.

7) Richmond Kickers

Last week: 4
Record: 2-1-4 (6th)
Matches since last ranking: DRAW at Greenville, 2-2
Next match: at NCFC, 5/17

Richmond gave up two goals in the first half but regrouped to score two in the second half to walk away with a salvaged draw. Defender Nathan Aune scored first and now leads the team in goals with two, while Luke Pavone added his first to seal the comeback. Center back Dakota Barnathan exited the match with an injury, an area of concern heading into a midweek matchup with offensive juggernaut NCFC.

Best case, Nil Vinyals returns to the midfield healthy and ready to go after resting this weekend. The club has missed his presence, and could certainly use him against NCFC to jump-start an offense that will need to be present if Barnathan is out. With Barnathan, Richmond is second only to Forward Madison in goals allowed per match.

8) Greenville Triumph

Last week: 6
Record (3-4-1, 4th)
Matches since last ranking: DRAW vs. Richmond, 2-2
Next match: at One Knox SC, 5/20

Greenville almost propelled itself into second place over Charlotte but gave up two goals in the second half to end with a disappointing draw against Richmond. The leaky defense let them down again, the worst in the league with 12 goals conceded. Greenville will travel to One Knox on Saturday, where its struggling hosts will be playing their third match in eight days. It will be an expected win, but the defense could use some shoring up in the meantime.

There’s Still Hope

9) One Knoxville SC

Last week: 10
Record: 2-3-2 (9th)
Matches since last ranking: LOSS vs. Hailstorm FC, 2-1
Next match: vs. Red Wolves SC, 5/16

The return of week one man of the match James Thomas was not enough to hold off a strong attack by Northern Colorado, which put up quick goals early in the second half. One Knox got on the board thanks to a Jake Keegan penalty kick conversion, but it wasn’t enough as they were held to just two shots on target in open play. Through seven matches, One Knox has six goals, half of which are penalty conversions. Not exactly a sustainable pace.

One Knox has a quick turnaround, hosting downstate rivals Chattanooga Red Wolves SC on Tuesday. Red Wolves SC won the last match 2-1 on April 8th.

10) Red Wolves SC

Last week: 9
Record: 2-3-1 (10th)
Matches since last ranking: LOSS vs. Tormenta FC, 2-0
Next match: at One Knox SC, 5/16

Chattanooga was off this week and will travel the 107 miles up I-75 to face One Knox SC on Tuesday. The club sits in 10th place with only five goals scored in six matches, two of which came against One Knox back in April. This is the second-worst goals-scored-per-match rate in the league.

11) Lexington SC

Last week: 11
Record: 2-4-1 (11th)
Matches since last ranking: WIN vs. Charlotte Independence, 1-0
Next match: at Richmond, 5/20

Amahl Knight took over goaltending duties and shined against a Charlotte Independence offense that can rain shots on any team in the league. Knight saved all six shots on target, including a late match penalty kick from Khori Bennett to ensure the win. A right-place-right-time Khalid Balogun goal off the bench in the 78th minute was all Lexington would need to earn three points against the club sitting in second place in the table.

Lexington will visit Richmond next weekend, where the club will be without defensive star Kaelon Fox, serving a red card suspension. A draw or a win would help exit the hole it is just starting to dig out of after this weekend.

Deep in the Hole

12) Fuego FC

Last week: 12
Record: 1-5-1 (12th)
Matches since last ranking: LOSS vs. NCFC, 2-0
Next match: vs. Tormenta FC, 5/20

Fuego FC was off this week and should be using the time to regroup around the return of star midfielder José Carrera-García. They’ll need to be ready, as they face a Tormenta side prone to inconsistency, but a side that may see the return of star striker Kazaiah Sterling.

It’s still a long season, so not all hope is lost. But this is quite the hole. The club sits dead last in the table, and in points per match, goal differential, goals scored, and goals scored per match, and is second last in goals allowed per match. All of this with only the 8th strongest schedule thus far.