This is it, the final weekend of the season. While five of six playoff spots are clinched, we still don’t know the exact order of the playoff seedings. And five of six matches this weekend have direct implications on that.
Here are our final 2023 power rankings, along with a comparison of where we had them at the start of the pre-season and in week 3, our first reagular season rankings. We also included the scenarios faced by each club heading into post-season, or the off-season for those in the bottom half.
1) Union Omaha
Last week: 2
Pre-season: 6
Week 3: 2
Record: 18-8-5 (1st)
Matches since last ranking: WIN vs. Charlotte, WIN at Tormenta
This week: at Madison
There’s no question that Omaha holds the momentum heading into the last weekend after two dominant performances over a playoff club (Charlotte) and a contender (Tormenta). The club scored eight goals in these two matches, and only conceded one to Charlotte. Half of the goals came from Steevan Dos Santos who, while always a threat this season, just caught fire. His off-season addition will go down as one of the greatest signings in club history should this keep up heading into the playoffs.
Scenarios: Omaha controls its destiny, heading into a final match against a desperate and struggling Madison side that they haven’t faced since May. Madison leads the 2023 series with a 2-1 win and a 1-1 draw in March. However, Omaha seems to be a completely different side since then, having not lost since July 22, and putting up an astounding 12 wins and 1 draw. Playing their rivals for full home pitch advantage in the playoffs, we won’t see them show any mercy.
#1: Win; or a draw with an NCFC draw or loss (72.2% )
#2: Loss with an NCFC win; or loss with an NCFC loss and NOCO win; or a draw with an NCFC win (22.2%)
#3: Loss with an NCFC win and an NOCO win (5.6%)
2) North Carolina FC
Last week: 1
Pre-Season: 1
Week 3: 7
Record: 18-6-7 (2nd)
Matches since last ranking: WIN at Lexington
This week: vs. One Knox
NCFC took care of Lexington, but Omaha had a match in hand and took full advantage to jump in the table. The 1-0 score at Lexington misses the fact that NCFC took 20 shots, with six on target. No surprise given they started Louis Pérez, Rafa Mentzingen, Oalex Anderson and Garrett McLaughlin, when normally one or two comes off the bench. Perhaps a preview of what playoff opponents can expect?
Scenarios: after leading the table for much of the season, NCFC sits two points below Omaha, but just one point above third place Northern Colorado. This is a club built to win in the playoffs, so any way they get in, they’re automatically still a favorite, but here’s what they face:
#1: A win with an Omaha loss or draw (22.2%)
#2: A win with an Omaha win; or a draw or a loss with a Northern Colorado draw or loss (55.6%)
#3: A loss with a Northern Colorado win or draw (22.2%)
3) Hailstorm FC
Last week: 3
Pre-season: 7
Week 3: 6
Record: 17-8-6 (3rd)
Matches since last ranking: WIN vs. Madison
This week: vs. Chattanooga
Moving right along, Northern Colorado contributed to Madison’s chronic late-season disappointments with a 2-0 win. Noah Powder scored early in the second half, and Trevor Amann added to his golden boot leading totals with a penalty conversion a little later. Of the top three teams vying for the two first-round bye slots, Hailstorm arguably has the easiest path, facing 9th place Chattanooga at home. But the Red Wolves should never be taken lightly, having picked up seven points in their last three matches.
Scenarios:
#1: A win with an Omaha loss and an NCFC draw or loss (5.6%)
#2: A win with an Omaha win and an NCFC draw or loss (22.2%)
#3: A win with an Omaha and NCFC win; a draw or loss (72.2%)
4) Charlotte Independence
Last week: 4
Pre-Season: 4
Week 3: 1
Record: 13-9-9 (4th)
Matches since last ranking: LOSS at Omaha
This week: vs. Tormenta
Suddenly, Charlotte’s lock on the 4th seed and at least one home playoff match doesn’t seem so certain. They took a 4-1 thumping at the hands of Omaha, and at the same time, fifth seeded Greenville continued to rack up points. They’ll host a Tormenta side this weekend, where the Jacks will be fighting for that home playoff match, and Tormenta will be fighting to clinch the final spot. Both head into the match having seen Omaha hand them demoralizing losses in the last ten days.
Scenarios:
#4: A win; a draw with a Greenville draw or loss; a loss with a Greenville draw or loss (77.8%)
#5: A draw with a Greenville win; a loss with a Greenville win (22.2%)
5) Greenville Triumph
Last week: 6
Pre-Season: 11
Week 3: 9
Record (13-8-10, 5th)
Matches since last ranking: WIN at Fuego, DRAW vs. Chattanooga
This week: vs. Lexington
Greenville settled for a respectable four of six possible points since last the rankings, and sit just one point out of fourth place in the table. While they’re in the playoffs regardless, the difference is a home match against Charlotte or an away match at Charlotte to start the first round.
Scenarios:
#4: A win with a Charlotte draw or loss (22.2%)
#5: A win with a Charlotte win; or a draw or a loss (77.8%)
6) Forward Madison
Last week: 7
Pre-Season: 5
Week 3: 3
Record: 11-10-10 (6th)
Matches since last ranking: LOSS at Northern Colorado
This week: vs. Omaha
Madison took a loss at Northern Colorado, in a week where even just a draw would have clinched that final spot after Tormenta also lost. Instead, they are just two points ahead of Tormenta, and face a red hot Omaha side, itself vying for the number one seed. They did this to themselves, going winless in their last three, including two losses. Despite the setbacks and lack of momentum, and the daunting task of taking on Omaha, the math and the odds are still in their favor. If the Mingos become the first club to defeat Omaha since July 22, they make it; but in all, seven total scenarios favor their chances.
Scenarios:
#6: A win, regardless of Tormenta’s result; a draw with a Tormenta draw or loss; a loss with a Tormenta draw or loss (77.8%)
OUT: a draw or a loss with a Tormenta win (22.2%)
6) Tormenta FC
Last week: 5
Pre-Season: 2
Week 3: 8
Record: 12-5-14 (7th)
Matches since last ranking: LOSS vs. Omaha
This week: At Charlotte
It’s hard to say who has the momentum between Tormenta and Madison heading into the final weekend in which one will continue into the playoffs and one will head into the off season. Tormenta lost in brutal fashion to top ranked Omaha, and must win at Charlotte to maintain a chance. A draw won’t cut it. We’re giving the slight momentum edge to Tormenta here, based on the fact that Charlotte should be less of a challenge for Tormenta than Omaha will be for Madison. However, only two scenarios out of nine favor Tormenta, and both involve beating Charlotte and hoping for a Madison loss or a draw. A draw or a loss against Charlotte and the defending champs head home.
Scenarios:
#6: A win with a Madison draw or loss (22.2%)
OUT: A Madison win; a Tormenta loss or a draw regardless of Madison’s result (77.8%)
8) One Knoxville SC
Last week: 8
Pre-Season: 10
Week 3: 5
Record: 9-11-11 (8th)
Matches since last ranking: DRAW vs. Richmond
This week: at NCFC
One Knox’s long shot run at the playoffs came to an end with a 2-2 draw against Richmond. The expansion side will finish the season in 8th place, and with nothing else left to play for, will have one last shot to inject some chaos into the race for the top three playoff spots at NCFC this weekend. It was a season of which the squad and community should be proud. Sean Lewis put out outstanding numbers in goal, and overall the club conceded the second fewest goals in the league. If a few offensive pieces fall into place next season, this is going to be a contender.
Scenarios: will finish in 8th place regardless of results
9) Red Wolves SC
Last week: 10
Pre-Season: 9
Week 3: 10
Record: 8-7-16 (9th)
Matches since last ranking: DRAW vs. Greenville
This week: at Northern Colorado
Chattanooga moved into 9th place with a draw against Greenville. Ropapa Mensah continued his comeback run with his 11th goal on the season, while Jonathan Filipe added his second. The result meant Greenville made the playoffs, but will have to work a bit harder if they want a home playoff match.
Chattanooga will finish up looking to spoil Northern Colorado’s long shot run at the top of the table or at least the number two seed. A win would see Chattanooga finish in 9th place, while a loss could see them drop as far as 11th.
10) Lexington SC
Last week: 9
Pre-Season: 12
Week 3: 11
Record: 7-10-14 (10th)
Matches since last ranking: LOSS vs. NCFC
This week: at Greenville
Thanks to some brilliant saves by Austin Causey, Lexington survived an onslaught of NCFC shots to walk away with only a 1-0 loss. However, discipline during a chippy second half also proved to be an issue for Lexington, with Pierre Mané taking a second yellow in the 63rd minute, and Terique Mohammed sent off in the 92nd minute after an altercation with DJ Benton, who was also sent off.
Lexington will travel to Greenville without the services of Mané and Mohammed. Lexington’s best finish this season is 9th, which would come from a win and a Chattanooga loss or draw. They could also finish as low as 11th with a loss and a Chattanooga and Richmond win.
11) Richmond Kickers
Last week: 11
Pre-Season: 3
Week 3: 4
Record: 6-11-14 (11th)
Matches since last ranking: DRAW at Knoxville
This week: vs. Fuego
Richmond played spoiler to Knoxville’s long shot playoff hopes with a 2-2 draw. With both Emiliano Terzaghi and Zaca Moran out, Nil Vinyals stepped up as captain and scored both, an outside of the box banger and a penalty conversion. The squad still hasn’t won since early July, but at least ended a brutal losing streak.
Richmond can finish as high as 9th with a win and a Chattanooga loss or draw and a Lexington loss. A loss or a draw would see the season end in 11th place.
12) Fuego FC
Last week: 12
Pre-Season: 8
Week 3: 12
Record: 5-5-21 (12th)
Matches since last ranking: LOSS vs. Greenville
This week: at Richmond
Fuego’s Alexis Cerritos struck first, giving some hope to the loyal home crowd that stuck out the final match of the season at Fresno State Soccer Stadium. But Greenville would respond in quick succession, capitalizing on Fuego’s defensive miscues. The end result: yet another loss in a season full of them.
Having already wrapped up the wooden spoon, Fuego heads to Richmond for one final match before the postmortem begins.